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Published: Monday 15 July, 2013

isabel marant sneakers online uk isabel marant sneakers online uk ´╗┐Another possible explanation Knoxville News Sentinel



The world is getting progressively warmer, and the vast majority of evidence points to greenhouse gases spewed into the atmosphere by humans carbon dioxide CO2, especially as the main culprit. But while the buildup of greenhouse gases has been steadily increasing, the warming goes in fits and starts. From one year to the next it might get a little warmer or a lot warmer, or even cooler.



Thats because greenhouse gases arent the whole story. Natural variations in sunlight and ocean currents; concentrations of particles in the air, manmade and otherwise; and even plain old weather variations can speed the warming up or slow it down, even as the underlying temperature trend continues upward. And while none of those factors is likely to change that trend over the long haul, scientists really want to understand how they affect projections of where our climate is heading.



The latest attempt to do so just appeared in Science Express, the online counterpart of the journal Science, where a team of climate scientists is reporting on their investigations of airborne particles, or aerosols, in the stratosphere.



Its also well known that major volcanic eruptions, like Mt. Pinatubos in the Philippines in 1991, can pump lots of aerosols into the stratosphere and indeed, Pinatubo alone temporarily cooled the planet for about two years. The explosion of Mt. Tambora in 1815 had even more catastrophic effects, which you can imagine given that 1816 came to be known as the year without a summer. But what lots of people thought, says Daniel, is that since there havent been any eruptions on that scale recently, aerosols have become relatively unimportant for climate.



That, says the study, is not true: even without major eruptions, aerosols in the stratosphere increased by about 7 percent per year from 2000 to 2010. Plug that figure into climate models, and youd expect to reduce the warming youd otherwise expect from the rise in greenhouse gases by up to 20 percent.



In the real world, as it happens, the rise in temperature slowed during that same decade. That, says Daniel, was the motivation for doing this research. It could have just been natural climate variability, but we wondered if it could be something else. Some climate scientists attribute the slowdown to heat being temporarily stor isabel marant sneakers online uk ed in the deep oceans, but stratospheric aerosols could clearly be part of the answer as well.



Whether these aerosols are natural or manmade, however, is something the scientists didnt address. Just last week, a paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS suggested the cause was a construction boom of coalfired power plants in China over the same decade. The new study doesnt necessarily contradict that. Human emissions could play a role, says Daniel, although the PNAS study was talking about aerosols in the lower atmosphere, not the stratosphere. But even in the absences of colossal volcanic eruptions, he says, smaller eruptions could still add up.



The other difference between t isabel marant sneakers online uk he two studies is that the one from last week looked at the relatively slow temperature rise over the most recent decade and tried to tease out what might have changed since the previous decades, when the warming was faster. The new one took actual observations of aerosols and tried to predict what the temperature rise should be. That sort of approach tends to produce more credible results, since an incorrect prediction would stick out like a sore thumb.



Where the two studies emphatically agree is that if the level of aerosols goes down due to a lull in eruptions, or a reduction in coalplant pollution, or both the pace of warming would likely pick up. That would mean that current projections for up to a 4.5C increase in global average surface temperatures by the end of the century might turn out to be an underestimate. And if aerosol levels increase, the temperature in 2100 could be lower than everyone expects.



Earth may enter a Little Ice Age within a decade



14 Jun 11 What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth far from facing a global warming problem is actually headed into a mini Ice Age, begins an article today in the UK Register.



Solar activity rises and falls about every 11 years, which is half of the 22year sunspot cycle. The current cycle is now supposed to be ramping up, but so far results have been most disappointing.



Sunspots, the enormous magnetic storms that erupt on the suns surface as the cycle builds, might disappear entirely for the first time since the Maunder Minimum, almost 400 years ago.



Todays shocking announcement came from scientists at the US National Solar Observatory NSO and the US Air Force Research Laboratory AFRL.



At a press conference held at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the A isabel marant sneakers online uk merican Astronomical Society in Las Cruces, New Mexico, three solar scientists gave their forecast for the next solar cycle, number 25.



Cycle 24 may be the last normal one for some time, said solar physicist Dr Frank Hill, and the next one, Cycle 25, may not happen. The solar cycle may be going into hiatus, like a TV show.



CO2 is a IR trapping gas, it therefore does tend to trap heat. Using physics you can get between 0.5 to 1C of warming for a doubling of CO20.5C using the latest spectral data! This is nothing like the 3 to 5.8C warming that the alarmists tell is will happen all of which is based on highly speculative feedback mechanisms, feedback mechanisms which clearly do not exist because if they did as has been said you wouldnt get rises in CO2 lagging the rise in global temperatures.



Moreover, CO2 also is a cooling gas. The same properties that make it absorb IR and tend to warm, also mean that it is great at emitting IR. This effect means it improves the cooling of the planet for the around 50% of heat that leaves the surface due to convection and rises to the top of the troposphere where there is effectively an open window into space. So, when CO2 works this way, it is a bit like topping up the refrigerant gas in airconditioning or perhaps more accurately putting in bigger heat exchangers.



So, more CO2 is a bit like painting a shiny surface black. Sometimes it causes the surface to warm up because it increases absorption of sunlight, sometimes it speeds the cooling of the surface shiny surfaces are great insulators. But at the end of the day, the important thing to remembers is that CO2 is a very small part of the atmosphere and water vapour is far more important as is atmospheric pollution cools the atmosphere and coincidentally dropped from 19702000 during the biggest apparent rise in temperature a fact few climate alarmists either know or would care to admit!



And as for current warming . there isnt any. It hasnt warmed since the IPCC came out with a clear prediction that it would certainly warm, since when the people involved have only kept their jobs because it takes ten years to prove them wrong! isabel marant sneakers online uk

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