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Published: Sunday 18 August, 2013

mk handbags sale mk handbags sale AN APPEAL TO REASON

Once an idea has become the conventional wisdom, even if it is broadly right, intellectual sloppiness can easily slip in. Nigel Lawson has provided a valuabl mk handbags sale e antidote to the sloppiness surrounding climate change. This short book forces a rethink not only of some of the more alarmist predictions of global warming theory, but also of the fundamental underpinnings of the theory itself.

Lawson rightly rejects the easy assumption that every major catastrophe, such as Hurricane Katrina, is due simply to climate change. While global warming may make such events more likely, other factors may well play a significant role.

Volunteer crews rescue the Taylor family from the roof of their suburban, which became trapped due to flooding during Hurricane Katrina, 2005, in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, USA.

Disentangling the natural variability of the climate from that which is new and manmade is fraught with difficulty.

The former Chancellor is right, too, to mock some of the solutions that have b mk handbags sale een all too readily peddled. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme, so favoured by the marketers, has turned out to be a gigantic scam, allowing businesses to invent a host of devices to cream off billions of pounds by making imaginary carbon reductions.

The current stampede into biofuels is hugely counterproductive both because it leads to the destruction of rainforests and because it takes up land that would otherwise be used for food crops, thus forcing up world food prices.

Lawson also points out that carbon offsets, so beloved of todays political and business jetsetting classes, are no better than the sale of indulgences by the mediaeval church, allowing the sinner to go on sinning so long as he pays the going price for it.

But he wants to go further than tilting his lance at the sillier eccentricities of what he sees as the climatechange establishment. He wants to demolish the entire infrastructure of climatechange theory.

Here his arguments are badly flawed. His attack centres on three main contentions. First, he argues that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere do not automatically translate into rising average global temperatures, since there was a pause in the latter between 1940 and 1975, and again between 2001 and 2007, so the basic theory fails. However, what he neglects is the Antarctic deepdrilling research which shows that greenhouse gases rose and fell in nearlockstep with average global temperatures over the past halfmillion years. Thus the basic theory holds.

Second, he argues that even on the most pessimistic economic scenario that global warming will cut world GDP by five per cent by 2100 people will still be greatly better off by then, so we shouldnt be too bothered about it. But averaging GDP out across the planet gives a very false impression. While most people may be not greatly affected, hundreds of millions of others may die. Its like saying that the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 may have killed 40million and the Second World War 60 million, but since the global population was two billion, we can live with those death tolls because world economic growth per capita was only slightly interrupted. Not an argument that will, I think, appeal to most people, especially when we cannot tell in advance who will live and who will die. But global climate change is not a linear process where warming grows smoothly and proportionately.

We may still be only in the early stages of climate change with very much worse to come, so a precautionary policy is the only sensible course. That should include switching from fossil fuels into renewable sources of energy at the fastest practicable pace, a high carbon price to e mk handbags sale ncourage decarbonisation, and carbon capture and storage when developing countries insist on largescale coalburning. mk handbags sale