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Published: Monday 16 September, 2013

canada goose uk stockist canada goose uk stockist Dire climate outlook despite warming pause

A global warming pause over the past decade may invalidate the harshest climate change predictions for the next 50 to 100 years, a study says.

Writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, an international team of climate scientists said a slower rate of warming increase observed from 2000 to 2009 suggested a lower range of values to be taken into account by policy makers.

While the last decade was the hottest since records began in 1880, the rate of increase showed a stabilisation despite everrising levels of Earthwarming greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Scientists have alternatively explained the flatter curve by oceanic heat capture, a decline in solar activity or an increase in volcanic aerosols that reflect the Suns rays.

Otto and his team used uptodate data on temperatures and levels of solar canada goose uk stockist radiation trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, to make new projections for climate warming.

The United Nations is targeting a global average maximum temperature rise of two degrees Celsius on preindustrial levels, for what scientists believe would be manageable climate change.

In 2007, the UNs Intergover canada goose uk stockist nmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC warned in a report of the temperature rising by as much as 6.4 degrees C in the worst emissions scenario.

But even if the response is at the low end of the current range of uncertainty, we are still looking at warming well over the twodegree goal that countries have agreed upon.

To meet the twodegree goal, countries are negotiating curbs to emissions of Earthwarming greenh canada goose uk stockist ouse gases released by fossil fuel burning.

Only last week, the level of carbon dioxide in Earths atmosphere breached a threshold of 400 parts per million a level never experienced by humans and considered the absolute maximum for the twodegree target to remain within reach.

Many scientists believe that on current trends, Earth is set for warming much higher than the twodegree target. canada goose uk stockist