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Published: Wednesday 18 September, 2013

canada winter coats canada winter coats Does the decision to fly or not has no impact on GHG emissions inside the EU

A discussion paper published at the University of East Anglia holds that due to the capandtrade scheme, a decisions to fly or not has no impact inside the European Union.

Quoting from the press release, Emissions trading schemes limit green consumerism:

The decision to fly or not no longer has any substantial impact on total GHG greenhouse gas emissions because emissions from aviation within the EU are included in the EU ETS. Any additional emissions caused have to be reduced elsewhere and vice versa.

The full paper, entitled Private provision of public goods in a secondbest world: cap and trade schemes limit green consumerism, by Dr Grischa Perino will be published by the Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science on Wednesday, January 30. As far as I can see, it does not appear to be peerreviewed.

An blog post by Leo Hickman on The Guardian website responds: Should we stop worrying about the environmental impact of flying?. Hickman writes: Perino appears to adopt a theoretical, idealised vision of the ETS, one that doesnt account for the systems very real flaws, not least its vulnerability to turbulence caused by vested interests and political pressure..

Other economists and antiaviation activists by Hickman do not really contest the point. He does quote Chris Goodall as saying:

Actually, people dont behave like economists expect them to do. Choosing an ethical lifestyle or a green lifestyle has two effects simply not captured by economists. First, it demonstrates a willingness to pay some price to achieve what one considers a social good. Sorry, Im talking like an economist here. If I say I wont fly, it demonstrates to others that their might just might be an issue with flying. In other words, there may be in fact, probably is a demonstration effect. We are all strongly guided by the ethical actions of those around us.

Second, the choice of lifestyle/consumption habits shows elected governments that there is popular support for action. If, say, a substantial number of people said that they were reducing their flying for environmental reasons it allows governments to impose tighter caps on flying emissions, knowing that they have some popular support. Frankly, I think this is the most important effect of ethical actions.

When a significant amount of t canada winter coats ravellers decide to take the train rather than the flight, inside the EU, I would expect this to reduce carbon emissions, because there are less flights. travel alternatives and should fly much, much less. As for Al Gore, he is a politician and is clearly more interested in himself than in the environment. I couldn care less about Al Gore. On a sidenote, the sustainability Stack Exchange should open soon. What are you actually questioning here though? If airlines are given 100 units of pollution for their flights and they use all 100 for flights that is the same as people flying less so they use 80 units and sell 20 to someone else. then you have a blogger arguing that if the airline only uses 80 for long enough the government will start giving them only 80, cutting total pollution assuming they don give that 20 to someone else. what a government will do in the future isn really something we can answer though. Ryathal Feb 1 at 16:43

TL;DR yes, decisions to fly do contribute to GHG emissions from regulated sources within the EU, and decisions to not fly contribute to GHG reductions.

The paper is based on a set of assumptions. The paper is internally consistent that is to say, if the assumptions hold, the conclusions hold. If they do not, there is no basis to accept the conclusion, particularly if the conclusion defies known science economics more flying = more emissions, ceteris paribus

Lets look at some of the assumptions in CBESS Discussion Paper 1301

The government sets a binding upper bound on

negative contributions to the public good . The

immediate implication of capandtrade is therefore that any change in emissions by one regulated source is perfectly oset by one or more other regulated sources.

There are several implicit assum canada winter coats ptions here:

the binding upper bound is always reached that within such a scheme we never undershoot; and therefore

that the binding limit for the following period does not take any account of undershoot of any previous caps.

Lets look at those two, within the context of the EU ETS, the cap trade scheme under discussion.

From Edie Energy, reporting on the UK Parliaments Environmental Audit Committee:

a surplus of emission allowances in the EU ETS worth 4.1bn 3.3bn had been accrued by large industrial companies.

From Pinsent Mason, environmental lawyers:

The dramatic drop in the EU carbon price reinforces the fact that urgent action is required, backed by clear legislative support, to structurally reform the EU ETS and to rebalance the supply and demand of allowances in the EU ETS market .

In its first report on the carbon market 12page / 225KB PDF, published last month, the Commission proposed six longerterm structural changes to the EU ETS. These could include increasing the EUs carbon reduction target from the current 20% to 30% by 2020, the permanent cancellation of a number of allowances or extending the scheme to cover additional sectors.

So it looks like neither of those implicit assumptions in the report in the question withstand scrutiny, and so its conclusions are unsafe. Which means we fall back to the basic science and economics, which is that reducing those activities that are known to release greenhouse gases, reduces the emissions of greenhouse gases.

So decisions to not fly can contribute to reduced GHG emissions from regulated sources in the canada winter coats EU.

Even if/when the cap is reduced to remove the surplus, I think it is worth emphasizing that the summary of the report gives the wrong impression. By reducing flights, the airlines will make less demand, reducing the price of carbon, reducing the price of other goods and allowing marginal activities to proceed where the carbon price originally made them uneconomic. by not flying, aluminium cans become more affordable and some glassblowers can work again. The argument that the whole cap will be used anyway ignores opportunity costs what else could you do with that carbon allotment? Oddthinking Feb 2 at 14:26 canada winter coats